In mid-December 2021, ABI Research analysts released a study identifying trends that will shape the technology market in 2022 and trends that, while attracting a great deal of speculation and commentary, are less likely to affect the technology market, among them meta-universes and robot companions.
What won’t happen in 2022?
The metaworld will not appear fully formed
Despite all the announcements and investments, the metaworld will not appear in 2022 or, according to ABI Research, during the typical 5-year forecast window. The metaworld is still more of a buzzword and vision than a shaped end goal with a definite date of actual full use. By the end of 2021, there are a number of tech companies creating their own version of the “meta-universe,” but this meta-universe is not fully interconnected, does not yet widely use open standards and certainly has not fully embraced augmented reality (XR) (some would also add cryptoeconomics to the list, that idea also not yet realized).
There will be no boom in the deployment of peripheral computing
Peripheral computing, both multiple access edge computing (MEC) and general peripheral computing, will continue to increase in the number of deployments. However, deployments in 2022 will be mostly critical, made by the very first users, rather than the beginning of the expected boom. Edge computing options and financial viability are closely tied to 5G cellular networks, both public and private. The availability of loyal, affordable 5G services on which edge computing will evolve is not yet a global reality. As a result, the adoption of peripheral computing will be slower than expected.
Companion robots will not become widespread
After several years of leading social robotics companies either closing up store or abandoning their commercial offerings, investment in this segment resumed in 2021, the potential for robot companions has also been reconsidered. Amazon’s launch of its first social robot, Astro, certainly generated a lot of attention. However, despite the enormous potential of social and companion robotics, 2022 will not be the breakthrough year the industry is hoping for, despite the scale, price and awareness that a player like Amazon can bring to an emerging technology market.
New car sales won’t return to previous levels
The supply chain for the automotive industry remains unable to meet pent-up demand due to a shortage of critical semiconductors. Reliance on outdated semiconductor technology with limited manufacturing capacity, proprietary designs and an opaque demand notification process has prolonged the semiconductor crisis in the automotive sector. There are no quick fixes for problems that have been years in the making. Thus, the effects of the decision made by automakers in 2020 to cancel existing semiconductor orders will persist beyond 2022. ABI Research does not expect new car sales to return to the 90 million mark (last recorded in 2018) until 2023.
Lack of positive momentum from semiconductor shortages
Until 2023, ABI Research reports that semiconductor shortages will be addressed through additional capacity, real demand verification (versus panic double or triple orders), and inflationary impacts on consumer spending on goods, among other things. Permanent risk factors include social / political risks and the ability to commission new production capacity in time, especially for cars and commercial vehicles with stringent design requirements. New COVID-19 strains and their impact on low-vaccination countries also play a role in resolving this issue, including the ability to staff facilities and transport finished products and semiconductor materials.